A mere 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach scolded him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was far more favourable. When the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, are somehow a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
This is a rather hard question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
As per the data, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened against United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the football into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the young forward now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
